Friday, 9 July 2010
USD/GBP - 1.518
Sterling fell yesterday against the US dollar and euro as mixed economic data triggered a sell off of sterling positions. Despite hitting a 2 month high of $1.5241/ £1 – the highest since early May – the pound struggled to make ground. This happened despite data showing a larger than expected rise in industrial production. However, house prices fell and the Bank of England kept the interest base rate and quantitative easing programme on hold as expected. It was revealed a few weeks ago that Bank of England member Andrew Sentence had voted for an increase in interest rates at the last meeting. We will need to wait for 2 weeks until the minutes of yesterday’s meeting are released to see whether any other members of the Bank of England followed suit. Out later today there is monthly PPI data and trade balance data which is expected to show a slight contraction in the UK’s trade deficit. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the USA, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 454,000 from 475,000 the week before. This was much better than expected and helped boost the US dollar against most of its counterparts and saw US government bond yields rise (a sign that investors are looking for riskier assets to invest in). In other news, the US administration pledged to monitor the Chinese yuan exchange rate, to ensure that China is living up to its commitments to help rebalance the global economy. Call in now to ensure you get the best exchange rate.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Thursday, 13 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.484
After a strong start to the day following the formation of a new government, sterling fell against the US dollar and euro. The pound hit a low of $1.4821/ £1 after opening above $1.5040/ £1. Against the euro, sterling fell from a high of 1.1830/ £1 to finish the day around the 1.17/ £1 mark. The reversal in fortune was as a result of yesterdays Bank of England inflation report, which predicted that inflation is likely to undershoot the 2% target over the next 2 years with interest rates likely to remain at record lows of 0.5% as a result. The initial optimism that boosted the pound following the announcement of a new government faded following the report, as many traders realised that the UK has a hard road ahead of it to clear the deficit which is currently running at 11% of GDP. In addition, despite the unemployment claimant count falling by 27%, unemployment rose to the highest level since 1994. The optimism of the election is likely to fade further (as we saw in the USA following the election of Barack Obama) and as a result it would be worthwhile looking at making any payments now before the pound sinks any further. Out today we have trade balance data, which can occasionally cause large movements if it comes in better or worse than expected. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the USA, today saw a marginal widening of the trade balance, but this had little effect on the US dollar which continued to strengthen against the pound throughout the day. One analyst suggested that with the scale of spending cuts, tax rises and low interest rates in the UK, we could see sterling hit $1.40/ £1 over the summer. The main data out today is US unemployment claims which are expected to drop marginally which is encouraging. In addition, there is monthly retail sales data which is expected to show an improvement and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses the Senate. Get in touch now – especially if you need to buy US dollars over the next few months.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.484
Sterling gained against the US dollar throughout most of yesterday, hitting a high of $1.5054/ £1 as speculation over a deal between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats helped calm market concerns over the political situation in the UK. Despite being up nearly 1.7% against the US dollar, the pound fell in late trading as news of Gordon Brown’s resignation opened the doors for a potential Labour-Lib Dem coalition and left the markets as concerned as they were at the start of the day. Against the euro, the pound was fairly volatile as traders digested the announcement of a 550bn package to help Greece avoid defaulting on its sovereign debt. The announcement initially caused the euro to strengthen, but the pound recovered ground later in the day as the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold and kept the emergency funding level at £200bn. Out later today we have manufacturing and industrial production data for the month. The key market moving data is the continued uncertainty over the election. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the USA, Deutsche Bank – the world’s biggest currency trader – said that the US dollar is likely to extend its 12% gain against the euro as Europe needs more than just emergency funding to help strengthen the single currency. Looking at purchasing power parity (the equivalent cost of two identical goods in two different currencies), the bank’s ‘fair value’ exchange rate prediction for the /$ is between the 1.15 - 1.20/ $1 marks. Following yesterday’s bailout the US stock markets surged by nearly 4%. Out today, we have some minor economic data which is unlikely to have any effect. Get in touch now for a price.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Friday, 7 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.462
Sterling has had a rollercoaster ride over the last 24 hours. We saw it hit 1.1860/ £1 at one point yesterday, before falling to a low (at the time of writing) of 1.1532/ £1 as sterling goes into freefall this morning as current predictions point to a hung parliament. Against the US dollar, the pound plunged as the first exit polls were released at 10pm last night and hit $1.4598/ £1 – the lowest level in over a year. Sterling is currently trading at $1.4710/£1, but could drop considerably further depending on how the day develops. The huge volatility was as a result of panic selling as concerns over the spread of European sovereign debt sent shockwaves through global markets. This panic hit stock markets and at one point yesterday in the USA, the Dow Jones was down over 1000 points – the most since the height of the credit crunch. The FTSE slipped over 5% and is on track for the biggest weekly fall since March 2009. With current results showing that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome of the election, sterling took back gains made against the euro yesterday. With complete uncertainty as to who will be the next prime minister, especially with Gordon Brown seemingly keen to cling onto power despite a huge swing to the Conservatives. Call in now for a live price, as a lot could happen over the course of the day.
In the USA, the Dow Jones recovered slightly after posting a 1,000 point drop yesterday and VIX (a measure of volatility in global financial markets) spiked above 40 for the first time since autumn 2008, when panic over Lehman Brothers caused huge movements across all asset classes. This shows the gravity of yesterday’s situation, as panic over Greece and concerns over the UK’s political situation saw investors flock to US government bonds which also saw interest rates paid plummet as demand for the ‘safe’ assets spiralled. Today we have non-farm payroll in the USA, which still has potential to cause further movement, especially if it comes in at anything more or less than expected. Call in now for a price on US dollars, as we could see absolutely anything happen in the next few days.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Tuesday, 4 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.518
Sterling has started the week relatively quietly ahead of Thursday’s general election. The latest polls show the Conservatives in front, but still lacking the required majority to take overall victory. With the prospect of a hung parliament looming, this is seemingly having little effect on the value of sterling and many analysts now feel that a hung parliament has been ‘priced in’ – i.e. already factored into the price. Another view is that a hung parliament might be a good thing for the pound, as stronger cross-party consensus would be needed to tackle the UK’s deficit. However, alternatively, traders might just be waiting to see what happens on Thursday before making a move – wary of placing large trades. Therefore expect a lot of volatility on Friday. Aside from the election, out today we have data on mortgage approvals and consumer credit, neither of which are expected to throw up any major surprises that will affect the pound. Call in now to discuss a strategy to avoid losing out over the election period.
In the USA, following last week’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at the 0%-0.25% target rate, there is a lot of key data out from the US this week. Friday sees non-farm payroll figures which are expected to show an increase of 190,000 jobs for April. In addition, there is manufacturing data and factory orders released today. As has been the trend over the last few weeks, the US dollar price is the risk gauge for sentiment towards the UK. Call in now to avoid missing out.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Thursday, 29 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.522
Sterling fell yesterday against the US dollar following the fallout from the Greek debt crisis that caused investors to flee to safer assets. The UK came under renewed examination in the run up to the election as analysts predicted that the crisis over government debt could spread further.
With most opinion polls pointing to a hung parliament, the pound suffered as no party would currently have the majority to push through legislation to clear the UK’s record deficit. Despite speeches from the Liberal Democrats over a ‘balanced government,’ or a coalition, markets like certainty and strong decisive government.
The pound hit a 3 week low of $1.5129/ £1 before recovering slightly towards the end of the day. Sterling stayed in a narrow range against the euro throughout yesterday but has dropped this morning after Spain suffered a credit downgrading. Further issues were caused by Gordon Brown’s shocking gaffe on the campaign trail.
There was no data out in the UK yesterday – out today, we have a house price report from the Nationwide which is expected to show a mild decline in the rate of growth in house prices. There is also the final prime ministerial debate tonight which could see more instability. Call in now on 0207 898 0549 for a live exchange rate as they are moving around quite a bit.
In the USA, the US dollar is still the gauge of global opinion towards risk in the economy. As a result, following yesterday’s issues in the euro zone many investors fled from UK investments to the US and as a result, the Dow Jones stock market in the USA closed higher yesterday. There is US unemployment data out today. Call in today on 0207 898 0549 for a live exchange rate.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Wednesday, 28 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.518
Sterling fell marginally yesterday against the US dollar and euro as fresh opinion polls cast fresh doubts over a hung parliament. Some minor mortgage approval data and retail sales data came in worse than expected but the closer we get to the election, the more obsessed the markets are with each opinion poll. The pound has managed to stay above the 1.52/ £1 and 1.15/ £1. The biggest news yesterday was the downgrading of Greek government debt to ‘junk bond’ status by rating agency S&P who also cut Portugal’s rating by two tiers. This has sent jitters through the world’s stock markets and explains the pound’s drop against the US dollar, but overall sterling has held up well. Out today, there is no UK data, so call in for a live price as sentiment over opinion polls and Greece could drive the markets anywhere.
In the USA, the US dollar has strengthened in the wake of increased risk aversion. Following a fairly light day on the calendar yesterday, the main event of today is the US Federal reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting. Whilst the outlook for the US has improved, it has not recovered sufficiently to warrant an increase in interest rates from the 0%-0.25% range. The markets will be watching closely for any hints of when the rate rise will take place. With Greece, US interest rates and the UK election on the agenda, we could see serious volatility. Call in now for a quote.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Monday, 26 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.546
Sterling had a very volatile week last week and despite the GDP figures coming in at 0.2% for the first quarter (0.2% less than expected), the pound has started the week strongly. Sterling is currently trading at $1.547/ £1 and 1.1560/ £1 – up around 0.6% against both currencies. Despite house prices growing at only 0.2% in April – the slowest rise in 3 months – the pound is up as a result of increased risk appetite following strong stock market performance overnight in Asia. Stock markets have been performing well as the first quarter ‘earnings season’ (when companies release earnings figures) has seen very strong results from many businesses, helping to fuel speculation that the recovery is fully underway. There is very little data out today, so sentiment will drive the market. Get in touch now for a price as we could see further volatility this week in the final days before the election.
In the USA, with no data out today, expect the markets to move on sentiment. Despite an election looming in the UK, sterling is at the best prices against the US dollar for almost 10 days. If you need to buy US dollars, it would seem advisable to take advantage of prices at this level as we could see a lot of movement in the next 2 weeks over the election. Call now for a live rate.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Friday, 23 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.538
Sterling hit a 12 week high of 1.1583/ £1 against the euro yesterday and has briefly broken through the 1.16/ £1 this morning - buoyed by better than expected data on UK public finances and euro weakness related to the Greek debt crisis. UK public sector borrowing was better than expected, despite the fact that the UK’s deficit is the highest since World War II. Retail sales data came in slightly worse than expected at 0.4% on an expectation of 0.6%, but had little effect on the pound. With political uncertainty still rife in the run up to the May 6th election, all eyes were on last night’s second prime ministerial debate. The debate was a lot more evenly matched and initial polls had David Cameron as the winner of the debate. Out today we have the first estimate of GDP data, which is expected to show that the UK economy grew at a rate of 0.4% in the 1st Quarter. This week demonstrates why it is so important to be registered with a currency specialist. We saw the pound jump up by half a cent over the course of 15 minutes before dropping back down shortly after. Registered clients were able to take advantage straight away rather than trying to set up an account, which by the time it was open was too late to get the price they wanted. Call in today for a price and to talk to a currency specialist about how to avoid losing out on favourable rates.
In the USA, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits dropped by 24,000 – about 4,000 short of what was expected. This saw the US dollar strengthen marginally against the pound, finishing the day 0.2% up at $1.5370/ £1. Following the events in the Euro zone the US dollar strengthened 0.6% and finished the day close to the $1.33/ £1 mark. Out today, there is data on durable goods orders and new home sales. Call in now to avoid the market adversely moving against you. Have a fantastic weekend in the sunshine (hopefully…)
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.538
Sterling rose yesterday as inflation rose more than expected. Consumer prices rose 3.4% on the year against an expectation of 3.2% and retail prices rose by 4.4% against an expectation of 4.1%. This unexpected jump fuelled speculation that the Bank of England may look to raise interest rates in the fourth quarter. The pound hit a high of $1.543/ £1 and 1.1436/ £1 but was held back from moving any higher by concerns over the election. Unexpected support for the Liberal Democrats has prompted renewed speculation that a hung parliament would leave the next Government with no clear majority to pass the tough legislation required to clear the UK’s record deficit. Today we have unemployment data and the minutes from the Bank of England’s recent meeting. With sterling seemingly having difficulty in holding above 1.140/ £1 and with the uncertainty of election, it might be worthwhile taking advantage of prices at that level. Call in now for a price.
In the USA, risk appetite returned to the market as tension eased over the indictment of Goldman Sachs for fraud as the bank posted better than expected profits of $3.5bn for the last quarter. This saw US stock markets rally and demand for US bonds falter. As a result, the US dollar dropped against sterling as traders bought in to the UK’s strong data. Out today, there is relatively little data. Call in now for a price as there is potential for a lot of volatility in the run up to the UK election.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
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