Monday, 24 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.441
Sterling recovered on Friday after a volatile week on the currency markets. With last week’s trading dominated by risk aversion related to Greece, the move by Angela Merkel to ban ‘naked short selling’ (selling assets that are not owned in order to profit from their fall in value) saw many investors rushing to buy back sterling and euro positions after having placed bets that they would fall. The pound has strengthened so far this morning and is currently up nearly 0.2% against the US dollar at $1.4480/ £1 and 1.16/ £1 (up 0.9%). On Friday we saw the budget deficit standing at £10bn for the month – the biggest ever shortfall for the month of April. This shows the scale of the task facing the new government, and even with the £6bn of cuts promised by the new chancellor, this is nowhere near enough. However, the cuts need to be finely balanced to ensure that they do not stifle growth – the reason why so many investors are negative about the pound. There is little data out today aside from some house price data. Get in touch now for a live exchange rate, as with the lack of news we could see sterling creep back up before the next piece of poor data.
In the USA, with risk aversion cooling over the weekend and this morning, the US dollar has fallen slightly against the pound. Risk aversion, where investors buy US dollar based government bonds (traditionally the safest asset class out there), has seen the US dollar strengthen nearly 12% against sterling since January and many wonder whether this has gone too far. Looking to the future, the US is likely to raise interest rates at some point this year, but recent forecasts show a very minimal increase by the end of 2010. The downward revision of interest rate forecasts shows that the USA is not yet in the robust recovery that many think. As a result, we could see further volatility as traders and investors reassess their forecasts for the pound/ US dollar as we go into the 2nd half of the year. Call in now for a quote.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Friday, 14 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.458
Sterling fell yesterday against the US dollar and euro as the UK’s trade balance widened by more than expected. In March, the UK imported £6.3bn more than it exported and in April this gap increased by more than £1bn to £7.5bn. Exports remained steady and imports jumped, which disappointed the markets. Sterling is weak compared to most major currencies and the fact that this has not encouraged foreign investment into the UK is worrying, but also shows that global demand as a whole is weak. The ongoing saga in Greece could be blamed for a lack of demand for UK goods, but this is likely to continue as the Euro zone looks to curb spending and avoid debt default. Mervyn King hinted that the UK would benefit if Germany injected funds into the economy to encourage spending and ultimately boost UK exports. Elsewhere, the new government sent a clear message of its intentions to cut spending by cutting their own pay by 5% - frozen for 5 years. Whilst this saves roughly £3m (a drop in the ocean compared with the deficit) it is a clear message to the markets. So far, financial markets have welcomed the new coalition. Unfortunately, the pound is in a poor position. If the Greek crisis spreads further, we will effectively lose demand from a major marketplace for UK exporters. Out today we have no real data for the UK, but the currency traders will keep a close eye on David Cameron as he continues to forge ahead with plans for a ‘New Britain’. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the USA, unemployment claims fell by 4,000 last month, but this fell short of the expected 8,000 drop. Import prices showed a mild improvement on the month. One analyst made the bold prediction that the USD would strengthen against the euro and reach or go beyond the 1999 entry rate of $1.18/ 1 as European countries are not following budget deficit rules laid down by the Maastricht treaty. The euro’s status as an alternative to the US dollar is in doubt as a result. Out today we have retail sales data for the US which is expected to show a decline month on month. Get in touch now, as many are predicting lower than $1.40/£1 in the coming months.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Wednesday, 5 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.513
Sterling had a mixed day yesterday falling to a 5 week low against the US dollar of $1.5090/ £1 and gaining against the euro to finish the day well above the 1.16/ £1 mark. The pound suffered over concerns that the crisis in Greece and subsequent bail out would spread to other countries. The FTSE stock market fell as bank shares suffered Greece related selling and mining companies fell as Australia announced a potential new tax on mining operations. This caused investors to sell the pound and buy US dollars. Lower than expected data on lending also added to sterling’s woes against the US currency as figures showed that month on month lending to individuals fell by £1.8bn and new mortgage approvals dropped by 3,000 on last month. Out today we have house price data from the Halifax and data on the construction sector. The election is still the biggest issue in the short term – call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the USA, the number of pending home sales rose by 5.3% - more than the 3.9% that was forecast and monthly factory orders unexpectedly showed a rise of 1.3%. This led to investors speculating that the US Federal reserve would look to raise interest rates much sooner than first thought, and prompted increased demand for the US dollar – especially when combined with the drop in sentiment in the Euro zone and concerns over a hung parliament in the UK. Get in touch now to avoid missing out as we could see the pound drop into the $1.40s against the US dollar again.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Friday, 30 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.537
Sterling gained against the dollar and crept back against the euro as European officials stated that additional aid for Greece would be agreed soon. Sterling is trading at $1.5360/ £1 and 11.1560/£1. The prospect of an agreement on Greek aid helped stabilise market fears over debt default in the euro region. Polls soon after last night’s final prime ministerial debate saw David Cameron emerge as the ‘winner’ of the debate, but concerns remain over a hung parliament as none of the parties have a clear majority. A poll of economists showed a 60% probability of a hung parliament – much higher than a month ago. Also yesterday, a Nationwide house price survey showed prices rise by 1.0%, which was slightly higher than expected. Yet again there is no data out today in the UK, but the pound is still likely to trade on sentiment in the final few days of campaigning. Get in touch now for a live price.
In the USA, unemployment claims for the month grew by 6,000 more than expected however the focus is on today’s market data. Out later we have the US first quarter GDP figures which are expected to show a rise of 4% as confidence has grown and economic data has improved. There is a lot of volatility in the market, so get in touch now for a live exchange rate.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Thursday, 29 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.522
Sterling fell yesterday against the US dollar following the fallout from the Greek debt crisis that caused investors to flee to safer assets. The UK came under renewed examination in the run up to the election as analysts predicted that the crisis over government debt could spread further.
With most opinion polls pointing to a hung parliament, the pound suffered as no party would currently have the majority to push through legislation to clear the UK’s record deficit. Despite speeches from the Liberal Democrats over a ‘balanced government,’ or a coalition, markets like certainty and strong decisive government.
The pound hit a 3 week low of $1.5129/ £1 before recovering slightly towards the end of the day. Sterling stayed in a narrow range against the euro throughout yesterday but has dropped this morning after Spain suffered a credit downgrading. Further issues were caused by Gordon Brown’s shocking gaffe on the campaign trail.
There was no data out in the UK yesterday – out today, we have a house price report from the Nationwide which is expected to show a mild decline in the rate of growth in house prices. There is also the final prime ministerial debate tonight which could see more instability. Call in now on 0207 898 0549 for a live exchange rate as they are moving around quite a bit.
In the USA, the US dollar is still the gauge of global opinion towards risk in the economy. As a result, following yesterday’s issues in the euro zone many investors fled from UK investments to the US and as a result, the Dow Jones stock market in the USA closed higher yesterday. There is US unemployment data out today. Call in today on 0207 898 0549 for a live exchange rate.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Wednesday, 28 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.518
Sterling fell marginally yesterday against the US dollar and euro as fresh opinion polls cast fresh doubts over a hung parliament. Some minor mortgage approval data and retail sales data came in worse than expected but the closer we get to the election, the more obsessed the markets are with each opinion poll. The pound has managed to stay above the 1.52/ £1 and 1.15/ £1. The biggest news yesterday was the downgrading of Greek government debt to ‘junk bond’ status by rating agency S&P who also cut Portugal’s rating by two tiers. This has sent jitters through the world’s stock markets and explains the pound’s drop against the US dollar, but overall sterling has held up well. Out today, there is no UK data, so call in for a live price as sentiment over opinion polls and Greece could drive the markets anywhere.
In the USA, the US dollar has strengthened in the wake of increased risk aversion. Following a fairly light day on the calendar yesterday, the main event of today is the US Federal reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting. Whilst the outlook for the US has improved, it has not recovered sufficiently to warrant an increase in interest rates from the 0%-0.25% range. The markets will be watching closely for any hints of when the rate rise will take place. With Greece, US interest rates and the UK election on the agenda, we could see serious volatility. Call in now for a quote.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Tuesday, 27 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.538
Sterling matched the highest level of the year against the euro yesterday as Greek debt uncertainty caused the euro to suffer. The pound hit 1.1620/ £1 in early trading yesterday (matching a 5 month high last seen in January) as the latest opinion polls showed the Conservatives winning a majority at the election in 10 days time and avoiding the dreaded hung parliament that has caused so much downward movement of sterling since the beginning of 2010. There was no data out yesterday aside from some house price data, so sterling benefited from better sentiment towards the UK. Out today, there is data on consumer spending which has the potential to cause volatility. Call in now to avoid the market moving against you as this is relative to the first 5 months of the year a great time to buy euros.
In the USA, there was no data out yesterday and the pound reached a high of $1.5496/ £1 as sentiment towards the UK improved following the poll results and poor market reaction to European news. The sterling/ US dollar price is currently a clear indicator of market feeling towards the UK. Upwards of $1.54/ £1 and feeling is good, down towards $1.50/ £1 and sentiment is poor. The volatility has been high over the last few weeks. Any news that could be perceived as negative can cause the price to drop rapidly. Call in now to take advantage of prices whilst they are good.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Monday, 26 April 2010
USD/GBP - 1.546
Sterling had a very volatile week last week and despite the GDP figures coming in at 0.2% for the first quarter (0.2% less than expected), the pound has started the week strongly. Sterling is currently trading at $1.547/ £1 and 1.1560/ £1 – up around 0.6% against both currencies. Despite house prices growing at only 0.2% in April – the slowest rise in 3 months – the pound is up as a result of increased risk appetite following strong stock market performance overnight in Asia. Stock markets have been performing well as the first quarter ‘earnings season’ (when companies release earnings figures) has seen very strong results from many businesses, helping to fuel speculation that the recovery is fully underway. There is very little data out today, so sentiment will drive the market. Get in touch now for a price as we could see further volatility this week in the final days before the election.
In the USA, with no data out today, expect the markets to move on sentiment. Despite an election looming in the UK, sterling is at the best prices against the US dollar for almost 10 days. If you need to buy US dollars, it would seem advisable to take advantage of prices at this level as we could see a lot of movement in the next 2 weeks over the election. Call now for a live rate.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
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