Friday, 13 August 2010
USD/GBP - 1.563
It has been a mixed week for sterling which ended the week up against the euro and down against the US dollar as a fresh wave of risk aversion hit global markets. Sterling hit a new 6 month high of $1.5999/ £1 on Monday but then dropped to a 2 week low of $1.5565/£1 on Thursday. The reason for this sudden increase in risk aversion was as a result of Wednesday’s Bank of England quarterly inflation report. This was a key assessment of the new government’s spending cuts and tax hikes and as a result, growth forecasts were slashed and inflation is expected to be well within the target 2% level within 2 years. More importantly, the Bank left the door wide open for further emergency Quantitative Easing if it is needed. This left financial markets concerned over UK recovery. Poor housing data and lower consumer confidence added to sterling’s problems and the strength against the Euro was related to risk aversion caused by the US economy. Call in now to ensure you don’t lose out on further poor market movements
Against the US dollar, sterling jumped to a 6 month high against US dollar this week, but since Monday sterling has been on a downward trend after the Federal Reserve announced further Quantitative Easing. On Wednesday, the decision was made that the US economy had underperformed for the last quarter and as such, it needed a further boost. As a result, risk aversion is back in play and there is strong demand for the safe haven US dollars despite major concerns over the US economy. Now might be a good time to secure prices to stop the market moving further against you as some analysts are predicting a return to the $1.40s. Today could be interesting too, as according to some research, an estimated 17-21 million people in the USA are afflicted by a fear of Friday the 13th (or friggatriskaidekaphobia) and the US economy loses between $800-$900m as people become too afraid to leave the house – ensure you don’t miss out by speaking to a trader today.
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Monday, 21 June 2010
USD/GBP - 1.487
Sterling has started the day strongly, rising to a 5 week high against the US dollar of $1.4925/ £1 in early trading. The pound’s strength comes off the back of strong movement in sterling’s favour on Friday, as data showed that the UK’s budget deficit was lower than expected. The UK’s borrowing is still expected to hit 11% of GDP in the coming year, and the main event on the calendar this week is tomorrow’s ‘emergency’ budget which is expected to deliver tough spending cuts and tax hikes. Today’s strength against the US dollar is linked to risk appetite, and many analysts are concerned that there is too much faith in the pound (which has strengthened by over 2% against the US dollar in the last month). There is some anxiety over the pace at which the budget will seek to cut the deficit, as if it is too aggressive, growth could be stifled. Get in touch now to take advantage of current prices, as we could see the pound return towards $1.40/£1 once the markets have had enough time to digest the budget.
In the USA, so far this morning, the US dollar has fallen by 0.3% and 0.4% against the euro and pound on risk appetite as the People’s Bank of China announced overnight that it would proceed with reform of the exchange rate ‘Peg’ (i.e. fixed rate) between the Chinese yuan and US dollar. The Peg has been blamed for artificially maintaining a weak Chinese currency that has drawn manufacturing demand away from the USA. With the Chinese economy at risk of ballooning out of control, this could be the first step to cool demand – allowing the exchange rate to strengthen, and effectively increase the prices on goods, without using interest rates. Get in touch now to ensure you don’t miss out on favourable movements.
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Thursday, 10 June 2010
USD/GBP - 1.459
Sterling recovered yesterday when investors bought back into the pound after analysts stated that the pound had been oversold on Tuesday following comments by credit rating agency Fitch. In the end, the comments made by Fitch added nothing new to what the markets knew already. Concerns over the deficit and a potential credit rating agency have been around since the start of the year, and many investors have been calmed by the aggressive cost cutting measures that have already been announced by the new government. As a result, the pound hit $1.4578/ £1 and was helped along by a strong performance by stock markets as risk aversion eased slightly. The pound is likely to remain under pressure in the run up to the emergency budget on June 22nd as investors remain cautious. There is a lot of data out today, with the main UK news being the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Whilst it is expected to remain on hold for the considerable future, there could be volatility if any comments are made regarding the £200bn asset purchasing facility. Call in now to ensure you take advantage of any movement.
In the USA, the US dollar fell yesterday as risk appetite increased. There is a fair amount of data out today, with the trade balance expected to show a widening to $42bn. In addition, Treasury Secretary Geithner addresses the Senate on China later this afternoon. There could be some interesting discussion regarding the exchange rate ‘peg’ (i.e. fixed exchange rate) that is in place between the US dollar and Chinese yuan. The US dollar seems to be swinging back and forth at the moment on sentiment – call in now to ensure you catch it at the right time.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Tuesday, 8 June 2010
USD/GBP - 1.447
Sterling hit a fresh 18 month high against the euro yesterday and also strengthened against the US dollar. The pound jumped to 1.2176/ £1 as rumours circulated that investors were moving funds from German ‘bunds’ (government bonds) into UK government bonds (also known as ‘gilts’). The move to UK based investments was attributed to fears over the structure of the euro zone as concerns grew even further that the euro will see serious problems over the coming years. Following a poor start to the week due to risk aversion, the pound also rallied against the US dollar as speculation grew that Prudential had not yet finished buying back billions of US dollars worth of sterling following last week’s failed bid to purchase AIG’s Asian insurance arm. The pound jumped 0.6% this morning to hit a high of $1.4560/ £1 before settling above $1.45/£1. David Cameron spoke today about the long road ahead for the UK economy, but there was little in his statement that the markets were not aware of already, as a lot of his ‘revelations’ over incorrect Labour forecasts have been suspected by a number of analysts for many months. Out today, there is consumer confidence data released overnight. Get in touch now for a live exchange rate.
In the USA, after a strong start to the day for the US dollar as investors moved to buy the safe haven currency, the US dollar gave back ground to most currencies with the notable exception being the euro. With a relatively quiet day on the data front, the US dollar became a gauge of risk sentiment again. The general forecast is that the US dollar is set to strengthen against the pound, and once the volatility related to Prudential has worn off, expect the US dollar to continue to strengthen. Out later today there is some economic optimism data. Get in touch now to take advantage of any spikes in the market.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Monday, 7 June 2010
USD/GBP - 1.442
Sterling fell on Friday against the US dollar but hit a 1 ½ year high against the euro as a worse than expected rise in US employment figures pointed towards a slower than expected US recovery. With Europe in the midst of a debt crisis and China looking to curb spiralling growth, many analysts were hoping that the USA could provide the driving engine of a global recovery. However, with the number of new jobs falling 100,000 short of what was expected, many analysts feel that this opens the door to a double dip recession and fresh round of risk aversion and a flight to US dollar denominated assets. Over the weekend, news was released that David Cameron is to state that the UK economy is in a far worse state than he had initially thought. With £6bn worth of cuts already announced, this is a drop in the ocean compared to the £156bn deficit. Following the Prime Minister’s statement later today, expect some volatility on the currency markets. In terms of data, there is little out aside from some yearly retail sales data. Ensure you do not lose out. Get in touch now for a live exchange rate.
In the USA, following Friday’s disappointing jobs report, the US dollar and Japanese yen have both strengthened as investors look for safe haven assets to invest in. With fears of a double dip recession – where growth turns negative after a period of recovery – the US dollar again looks set to take on the role of risk sentiment indicator. Therefore, any negative news in the UK will see sterling fall against the US dollar. In addition, perversely, any strong data for the USA will have the same effect. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Friday, 28 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.452
Its all about risk at the moment and whether you are risk adverse or you have risk appetite. Last week was definitely a week where risk aversion was to the fore and the US$ given its safe haven status in the ascendancy. The second half of this week has seen risk appetite return. The result of this was that we have seen sterling appreciate even though the economic data has been less than supportive for sterling. Yesterday we had retail sales for May released which were below expectations and the poorest for a while. Bad weather was given as the reason but you are left to wonder if there is a different underlying problem. So even though we hit 1.18 interbank yesterday there is no conviction that sterling will keep on going or suddenly go into fast reverse. Volatility continues to high, movements somewhat random and when they happen quick and large so that is why it is so important to get in touch now.
The US$ continues to be the least ugly of the ugly sisters and somehow convincing the market it is a safe haven asset. We have seen sterling gain some ground on increased risk appetite pulling back to over US$1.45/£1 first thing this morning but the market is still believing that sterling will weaken further. And the US does seem to be ahead of the curve with economic data being broadly positive. So don’t miss out on short term buying opportunities and give us a call now.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Wednesday, 26 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.440
Sterling fell by 1% yesterday against the US dollar as investors continued to suffer from risk aversion. At one point the pound hit $1.4250/ £1 but recovered slightly towards the end of the day. Sterling performed well against the euro, breaching 1.17/ £1 before falling off the day’s high. The reason for sterling’s fall against the US dollar was that stock markets plummeted yesterday as concerns mounted over the Spanish financial system. In addition, mounting tensions between North Korea and South Korea caused markets to panic as news came through that the North Korean military had been mobilised and ordered to attack if fired upon by the South. In terms of data, the UK’s 1st Quarter GDP was revised upwards to 0.3% which was as expected and had little effect on the markets. Out today we have mortgage approval data for the UK, which is unlikely to have a huge effect on sterling. Call in now for a price, as sentiment is the key driver of currencies at the moment and could see the price move either way.
In the USA, the US dollar continued to benefit from global risk aversion related to both European debt and potential conflict on the Korean peninsular. In terms of data, over the last few months US housing data has performed well after activity picked up following a very poor winter. New home sales data out today is expected to show an increase to 420,000 from 411,000 in April. In addition, durable goods data out later today is expected to show an increase. Call in now for a price – especially if you have US dollars to move into sterling as this seems like a great time to be doing this.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Tuesday, 25 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.428
Sterling gained over 1% against the euro yesterday and fell against the US dollar. The pound hit a high of 1.1646/ £1 and fell to a daily low of $1.4353/ £1 before pulling back ground towards $1.4430/ £1. The strength against the euro was fuelled by further concerns in the euro zone as the Spanish central bank took over a savings bank to avoid it collapsing. There was little reaction from the markets as the new chancellor George Osborne outlined plans to cut £6.25bn worth of public spending – the bulk of which will be used to trim the UK’s record 11% deficit. Aside from the chancellor’s announcement there was little other data out for the UK. The markets are waiting for tomorrow’s revised GDP data for the 1st Quarter. An upward revision of 0.1% to 0.3% is expected. Movement either side of this figure could see significant volatility. Get in touch now to avoid missing out.
In the USA, the US dollar performed well yet again against the euro and sterling. This was fuelled by both risk aversion over concerns in the Euro zone and strong data released during the day. Existing home sales data jumped more than expected, coming in at 5.77m against an expected 5.62m – up nearly 410,000 on the month. Out later today, there is consumer confidence data which has the potential to move the markets significantly. Get in touch now for a live exchange rate and to avoid missing out – especially ahead of the US GDP figures released later this week.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Monday, 24 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.441
Sterling recovered on Friday after a volatile week on the currency markets. With last week’s trading dominated by risk aversion related to Greece, the move by Angela Merkel to ban ‘naked short selling’ (selling assets that are not owned in order to profit from their fall in value) saw many investors rushing to buy back sterling and euro positions after having placed bets that they would fall. The pound has strengthened so far this morning and is currently up nearly 0.2% against the US dollar at $1.4480/ £1 and 1.16/ £1 (up 0.9%). On Friday we saw the budget deficit standing at £10bn for the month – the biggest ever shortfall for the month of April. This shows the scale of the task facing the new government, and even with the £6bn of cuts promised by the new chancellor, this is nowhere near enough. However, the cuts need to be finely balanced to ensure that they do not stifle growth – the reason why so many investors are negative about the pound. There is little data out today aside from some house price data. Get in touch now for a live exchange rate, as with the lack of news we could see sterling creep back up before the next piece of poor data.
In the USA, with risk aversion cooling over the weekend and this morning, the US dollar has fallen slightly against the pound. Risk aversion, where investors buy US dollar based government bonds (traditionally the safest asset class out there), has seen the US dollar strengthen nearly 12% against sterling since January and many wonder whether this has gone too far. Looking to the future, the US is likely to raise interest rates at some point this year, but recent forecasts show a very minimal increase by the end of 2010. The downward revision of interest rate forecasts shows that the USA is not yet in the robust recovery that many think. As a result, we could see further volatility as traders and investors reassess their forecasts for the pound/ US dollar as we go into the 2nd half of the year. Call in now for a quote.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
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Exchange rates can move very quickly. The above rates are valid at a moment in time. We have no crystal ball and we recommend that if an exchange rate works for your budget then don’t wait for an even better exchange rate - Murphy’s Law says the rate will go against you and cause you maximum pain! Suggestions should not be taken as advice or fact.
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