Friday, 28 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.452
Its all about risk at the moment and whether you are risk adverse or you have risk appetite. Last week was definitely a week where risk aversion was to the fore and the US$ given its safe haven status in the ascendancy. The second half of this week has seen risk appetite return. The result of this was that we have seen sterling appreciate even though the economic data has been less than supportive for sterling. Yesterday we had retail sales for May released which were below expectations and the poorest for a while. Bad weather was given as the reason but you are left to wonder if there is a different underlying problem. So even though we hit 1.18 interbank yesterday there is no conviction that sterling will keep on going or suddenly go into fast reverse. Volatility continues to high, movements somewhat random and when they happen quick and large so that is why it is so important to get in touch now.
The US$ continues to be the least ugly of the ugly sisters and somehow convincing the market it is a safe haven asset. We have seen sterling gain some ground on increased risk appetite pulling back to over US$1.45/£1 first thing this morning but the market is still believing that sterling will weaken further. And the US does seem to be ahead of the curve with economic data being broadly positive. So don’t miss out on short term buying opportunities and give us a call now.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Thursday, 27 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.445
Sterling had a strong day against the euro yesterday as investors sold the single currency on concerns that Europe’s debt problems were far worse than the UK. The pound rose 1% to hit a 2 week high of 1.1808/ £1 in afternoon trading. With the UK election out of the way, the debt risk in the UK still saw the pound suffer against the US dollar but the pound is a far superior option for investors than the single currency. Expectations for growth were boosted earlier in the week when 1st Quarter GDP showed an increase on the initial estimate but mortgage data released yesterday showed that the number of new mortgage approvals fell slightly on the month. Overall though, the number of mortgages approved rose 15.5% for the year and net lending increased by £1.825bn. Out today we have sales data for the UK which is expected to come in at around the same level as last month. Get in touch now for a live price to ensure you take advantage at the right time.
In the USA, fundamental data released yesterday was strong. Durable goods orders came in a lot higher than expected and new home sales jumped to 504,000 – far more than the 425,000 that was expected. The main data out today in the US is the second estimate of 1st Quarter GDP. The general consensus is for an upward revision to 3.5% from 3.2%, but this could be more, as consumer spending has been strong over the last few months. In addition, there is initial jobless claims data that is expected to show a drop in claimants to the lowest level since August 2008. However, it is worth noting that US ‘unemployment insurance’ runs out after several months, so a drop in claimants does not necessarily mean those people are back in work. Get in touch now for a live price to avoid missing out.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Wednesday, 26 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.440
Sterling fell by 1% yesterday against the US dollar as investors continued to suffer from risk aversion. At one point the pound hit $1.4250/ £1 but recovered slightly towards the end of the day. Sterling performed well against the euro, breaching 1.17/ £1 before falling off the day’s high. The reason for sterling’s fall against the US dollar was that stock markets plummeted yesterday as concerns mounted over the Spanish financial system. In addition, mounting tensions between North Korea and South Korea caused markets to panic as news came through that the North Korean military had been mobilised and ordered to attack if fired upon by the South. In terms of data, the UK’s 1st Quarter GDP was revised upwards to 0.3% which was as expected and had little effect on the markets. Out today we have mortgage approval data for the UK, which is unlikely to have a huge effect on sterling. Call in now for a price, as sentiment is the key driver of currencies at the moment and could see the price move either way.
In the USA, the US dollar continued to benefit from global risk aversion related to both European debt and potential conflict on the Korean peninsular. In terms of data, over the last few months US housing data has performed well after activity picked up following a very poor winter. New home sales data out today is expected to show an increase to 420,000 from 411,000 in April. In addition, durable goods data out later today is expected to show an increase. Call in now for a price – especially if you have US dollars to move into sterling as this seems like a great time to be doing this.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Friday, 21 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.443
Sterling recovered from yesterday’s 14 month low against the US dollar as investors unwound ‘short’ positions in the pound as fears over European regulation hit investor confidence. German chancellor Angela Merkel’s banned ‘naked short’ selling of national debt – i.e. selling an asset you don’t have, moving the market down and then buying back at a profit. This feels like a very desperate attempt to preserve the euro, and banning naked short selling is not necessarily the best option – a ban on short selling bank shares in 2008 did not prevent those shares tumbling. The UK has suffered since the election as many feel the aggressive spending cuts promised by the government will hurt growth. There are several pieces of data out today. Public sector net borrowing, business investment and mortgage approvals could all cause significant volatility as sentiment towards the UK suffers. The pound has now fallen 11% against the US dollar in the last year – the worst performer of all the major currencies. Call in now for a live price.
In the USA, with a relatively light day on the economic calendar, the US dollar has been trading on sentiment surrounding the Greek crisis. With the short selling ban now in place, the US dollar has dropped as investors close out speculative positions. Yesterday, manufacturing data showed a slight decline which was a little disappointing given previous industrial production data. With the pound still hovering around the 13 month low, there is still scope for it to fall even further. Get in touch now to avoid missing out.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Thursday, 20 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.437
The new Chancellor of the Exchequer made his first speech yesterday outlining some of his thoughts on how to encourage businesses to the UK rather than driving them away. Key in this was a reduction in corporation tax. All makes sense because without a strong private sector it becomes very difficult to match government expenditure to income. Sterling had a relatively steady day as it continues to trade in narrow ranges against the euro and be on a downward trend against the US$. Against currencies such as the Australian $ and the New Zealand dollar sterling gained ground as risk aversion was on the increase over the Chinese economy. So times continue to be “interesting” and that is why I suggest you call in now so as to avoid unnecessary losses.
Again the US$ is benefitting from risk aversion and continues to strengthen against sterling and the euro. Even the Russians who wanted to diversify their reserves out of the US$ have been increasing their holding of US$’s. So unless there is some dramatic news out of the US it seems that the US$ is in an upward trend against both the euro and sterling for the short to medium term. So I would suggest that if you need to buy some US$’s then sooner rather than later probably makes sense.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Wednesday, 19 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.432
So the UK parliament met for the first time yesterday following the general election. Some people were sitting next to people they probably thought they would never sit next to ever in Parliament [e.g. David Cameron and Nick Clegg]. But we are in a brand new world after 15 plus years of New Labour and as such everyone was full of smiles and high spirits. Sadly this didn’t flow through to sterling. Sterling had a strange start to the day as consumer price inflation came in at 3.7% which was way ahead of the target of 2% and ahead of market expectations. Initially sterling benefitted but then lost ground as the market realised that interest rates in the UK are not going to increase any time soon [which is normally the solution when inflation is ahead of target] due to our “difficult” economic conditions. Very difficult times for sterling so please call now so that you can properly manage your currency exposure.
The US$ continues to be flavour of the month/year at the moment and is living up to market expectations increasing in strength against sterling and the euro [hitting 4 year highs against the euro]. Not really surprising given the problems in the UK and the euro zone, the US$’s safe haven status and the expectation that the US is leading the western world out of recession. So call now as it doesn’t seem like a good idea to hold off on buying your dollars.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.450
The pound suffered yesterday as concerns over the UK’s escalating deficit saw sterling hit a 13 month low of $1.4250/ £1 against the US dollar and slip against the euro. With many investors shying away from highly indebted countries, many analysts expect the downward trend against the US dollar to continue. With no real data released today, the big news was the announcement by the Chancellor George Osborne that the government will create a new independent watchdog to monitor the budget and economic forecasting. In a move similar to Labour’s creation of an independent interest rate setting body early into their first term in 1997, the new Chancellor is looking to ensure that he and his new government are held to account on cutting the deficit. He also announced that the first budget would be announced on June 22nd. With the government committed to delivering £6bn worth of spending cuts in the next year, the markets will be waiting to see exactly where the cuts will come from. Whilst the City is keen on the tough stance on spending, there are concerns that an overly aggressive round of cuts will stifle the UK’s fragile growth. With poor house price figures out yesterday morning, the Chancellor has a lot to prove. Inflation data out later today could cause some movement and many expect the pound to suffer in the run up to the budget. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the US, despite a strong week for industrial data last week, the ‘Empire’ manufacturing index came in a lot worse than expected fuelling expectations that the US recovery may not be as strong as many thought. The US dollar is experiencing a lot of strength related to negative sentiment – both towards the euro zone and the UK as growth prospects fall. Out later today we have building permit data giving an idea as to the state of the housing market and also purchasing data. Get in touch now to ensure you don’t miss out.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Friday, 14 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.458
Sterling fell yesterday against the US dollar and euro as the UK’s trade balance widened by more than expected. In March, the UK imported £6.3bn more than it exported and in April this gap increased by more than £1bn to £7.5bn. Exports remained steady and imports jumped, which disappointed the markets. Sterling is weak compared to most major currencies and the fact that this has not encouraged foreign investment into the UK is worrying, but also shows that global demand as a whole is weak. The ongoing saga in Greece could be blamed for a lack of demand for UK goods, but this is likely to continue as the Euro zone looks to curb spending and avoid debt default. Mervyn King hinted that the UK would benefit if Germany injected funds into the economy to encourage spending and ultimately boost UK exports. Elsewhere, the new government sent a clear message of its intentions to cut spending by cutting their own pay by 5% - frozen for 5 years. Whilst this saves roughly £3m (a drop in the ocean compared with the deficit) it is a clear message to the markets. So far, financial markets have welcomed the new coalition. Unfortunately, the pound is in a poor position. If the Greek crisis spreads further, we will effectively lose demand from a major marketplace for UK exporters. Out today we have no real data for the UK, but the currency traders will keep a close eye on David Cameron as he continues to forge ahead with plans for a ‘New Britain’. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the USA, unemployment claims fell by 4,000 last month, but this fell short of the expected 8,000 drop. Import prices showed a mild improvement on the month. One analyst made the bold prediction that the USD would strengthen against the euro and reach or go beyond the 1999 entry rate of $1.18/ 1 as European countries are not following budget deficit rules laid down by the Maastricht treaty. The euro’s status as an alternative to the US dollar is in doubt as a result. Out today we have retail sales data for the US which is expected to show a decline month on month. Get in touch now, as many are predicting lower than $1.40/£1 in the coming months.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
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