Wednesday, 23 June 2010
USD/GBP - 1.486
Yesterday we had the first budget from the new coalition government. The reality of the budget was very much as expected given the huge hole in the public finances and the need to match income to expenditure. And it is often stated that it is best to get all the bad news over quickly rather than dragging it out and prolonging uncertainty and undue suffering. So the new Chancellor laid out a very clear plan of action stating what was going to be done and how. The financial markets initial reaction has been positive which is important to sterling’s stability in the currency market as we have to remember that lenders to this country have to be convinced that we will be able to service our debt longer term. Sterling has gained against both the euro and the US$. The one unknown is what the effect of the cuts in expenditure, the increased VAT and austerity measures elsewhere in the world will have on growth in the UK economy, but the belief is that we will avoid a double dip recession. So we have taken a small step forward but the level of uncertainty is still high and that is why it is important to get in touch now and minimise the chance of losing out.
The US$ has been trading in a narrow ranger against sterling for the last few days. The major news over the weekend was the Chinese decision to let the Yuan move more freely against the US$. This moving freely is all relative as it will still be very controlled but it does mean that Chinese exports will become more expensive and less competitive and make other countries exports into China cheaper. So the logic being applied is that we will see a rebalancing of the world’s cash flows with China’s trade surpluses reducing.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Thursday, 10 June 2010
USD/GBP - 1.459
Sterling recovered yesterday when investors bought back into the pound after analysts stated that the pound had been oversold on Tuesday following comments by credit rating agency Fitch. In the end, the comments made by Fitch added nothing new to what the markets knew already. Concerns over the deficit and a potential credit rating agency have been around since the start of the year, and many investors have been calmed by the aggressive cost cutting measures that have already been announced by the new government. As a result, the pound hit $1.4578/ £1 and was helped along by a strong performance by stock markets as risk aversion eased slightly. The pound is likely to remain under pressure in the run up to the emergency budget on June 22nd as investors remain cautious. There is a lot of data out today, with the main UK news being the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Whilst it is expected to remain on hold for the considerable future, there could be volatility if any comments are made regarding the £200bn asset purchasing facility. Call in now to ensure you take advantage of any movement.
In the USA, the US dollar fell yesterday as risk appetite increased. There is a fair amount of data out today, with the trade balance expected to show a widening to $42bn. In addition, Treasury Secretary Geithner addresses the Senate on China later this afternoon. There could be some interesting discussion regarding the exchange rate ‘peg’ (i.e. fixed exchange rate) that is in place between the US dollar and Chinese yuan. The US dollar seems to be swinging back and forth at the moment on sentiment – call in now to ensure you catch it at the right time.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Tuesday, 18 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.450
The pound suffered yesterday as concerns over the UK’s escalating deficit saw sterling hit a 13 month low of $1.4250/ £1 against the US dollar and slip against the euro. With many investors shying away from highly indebted countries, many analysts expect the downward trend against the US dollar to continue. With no real data released today, the big news was the announcement by the Chancellor George Osborne that the government will create a new independent watchdog to monitor the budget and economic forecasting. In a move similar to Labour’s creation of an independent interest rate setting body early into their first term in 1997, the new Chancellor is looking to ensure that he and his new government are held to account on cutting the deficit. He also announced that the first budget would be announced on June 22nd. With the government committed to delivering £6bn worth of spending cuts in the next year, the markets will be waiting to see exactly where the cuts will come from. Whilst the City is keen on the tough stance on spending, there are concerns that an overly aggressive round of cuts will stifle the UK’s fragile growth. With poor house price figures out yesterday morning, the Chancellor has a lot to prove. Inflation data out later today could cause some movement and many expect the pound to suffer in the run up to the budget. Call in now for a live exchange rate.
In the US, despite a strong week for industrial data last week, the ‘Empire’ manufacturing index came in a lot worse than expected fuelling expectations that the US recovery may not be as strong as many thought. The US dollar is experiencing a lot of strength related to negative sentiment – both towards the euro zone and the UK as growth prospects fall. Out later today we have building permit data giving an idea as to the state of the housing market and also purchasing data. Get in touch now to ensure you don’t miss out.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
Monday, 17 May 2010
USD/GBP - 1.441
Sterling has hit a 13 month low against the US dollar in early trading this morning and also fell against the euro as house price data for the UK raised concerns over the health of the domestic economy. This is a particular worry as the new government is committed to cutting the deficit, therefore investors are concerned that the UK will experience poor growth as a result. A house price survey showed that UK prices in May rose less than they did in April pointing to a slow down in the housing market recovery. The reason for the fall was an increase in supply causing sellers to reduce their price expectations. The pound hit $1.4253/ £1 – the lowest since March 2009 – and also fell against the euro to hit a low of 1.1640/ £1. There is little other data out today and as a result, the pound is likely to continue to trade on sentiment. Call in now for an updated price as we could break through the $1.40/ £1 barrier soon.
In the USA, with strong demand for the US dollar today following a poor session on Asian stock markets, expect the trend to continue today. US stock futures suggest that the US stock markets will be down by several points later today. This risk aversion is driving demand for the US currency. Following strong industrial data last week, the Empire manufacturing survey is expected to show similar strength. Later in the week we have the minutes from the Fed’s recent interest rate decision, which could point to when the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates next. Get in touch now, as we have seen the pound fall by 20 cents over the last year. Stop this from continuing to impact your payments by speaking to a trader today.
Exchange rates change every second - call Smart Currency Exchange for a live up-to-the-minute quote. For individual requirements, visit the SmartCurrencyExchange.com website and for companies visit the SmartCurrencyBusiness.com website.
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